Strait of Hormuz Blockade: Potential Scenarios and Consequences

Starting Monday afternoon, there are plans for the United States to blockade the Strait of Hormuz. This article explores what such a blockade might entail and its potential consequences, addressing the key questions surrounding this development.

At 4:00 PM Central European Time, the situation becomes critical: the US intends to blockade the Strait of Hormuz. This was announced by US President Donald Trump following the preliminary failure of negotiations with Iran. Trump stated on the platform Truth Social on Sunday that the US Navy would prevent all ships from entering or leaving the strait.

Trump justified the move by citing threats from Tehran, referring to them as "global blackmail." Iran had reportedly indicated the potential presence of mines in the strait. According to Trump, the blockade would only be eased once passage for all ships is unrestricted.

What is Trump's objective with the blockade?

Trump's aim with the blockade is to prevent Iran from levying fees on shipping companies for passage and, concurrently, to target the country's primary revenue streams. This is in response to Tehran's recent consideration of imposing a form of toll on ships passing through and exerting greater control over the strait. Such a move is met with widespread international disapproval, as the principle of freedom of navigation generally applies to such natural waterways.

"We insist on international law. International shipping lanes must be freely and safely passable," stated Carsten Duif from the Association of German Shipowners (VDR) in response to a query from Capital. The US has also announced its intention to clear naval mines from the strait. Their goal is to regain control over the shipping routes and prevent Iran from using the strait as leverage. However, it remains unclear if and to what extent the Strait of Hormuz is actually mined.

How could a blockade be practically implemented?

The precise details of a blockade are not yet clear. Fundamentally, it would constitute a military operation, according to Carsten Duif of the VDR. It's possible that naval vessels would monitor the passage, preventing merchant ships from proceeding freely. At its narrowest point, the Strait of Hormuz is only about 50 kilometers wide, with the actual shipping lanes being considerably narrower. Tankers and freighters navigate through a few clearly defined corridors. This characteristic makes a blockade relatively controllable. Warships could position themselves at these choke points. Ships would then be forced to stop, turn around, or would not even attempt to enter.

What would happen to ships that defy the blockade?

Following the announcements from Washington, ships that do not comply with the blockade could face consequences. Trump declared that US forces have been ordered to intercept vessels continuing their passage or paying fees to Iran despite the measures. In practice, this could mean that warships would stop, inspect, or force such freighters to turn back. The strictness of this implementation is uncertain. However, it is clear that the risk for shipping companies would significantly increase. Many would likely refrain from entering the strait altogether due to safety concerns.

Why is the Strait of Hormuz so crucial for the global economy?

The strait is the sole maritime link between the Persian Gulf and the open sea, thus serving as the access point for vital oil-producing nations in the Gulf to global trade. In 2024, an average of approximately 20 million barrels of crude oil passed through the Strait of Hormuz daily – nearly 20 percent of global consumption.

Additionally, about one-fifth of the world's liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade, primarily from Qatar, transits through the strait. If the Strait of Hormuz were to become impassable, major Gulf states would be unable to export oil. This would lead to massive disruptions in energy markets, including sharp increases in oil prices.

How are Iran and other countries reacting to the announced blockade?

Iran's armed forces have described the naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz announced by Trump as an "act of piracy." A spokesperson for the Iranian military leadership stated, according to the Tasnim news agency, that restrictions on shipping in international waters are an illegal measure. "The security of ports in the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman is for everyone, or for no one," the spokesperson added.

The British government also does not support the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz announced by Trump. Prime Minister Keir Starmer told the "BBC" that all diplomatic, political, and military measures are aimed at reopening the strait. Following the US announcement, China called on both sides to exercise restraint and maintain a ceasefire.