What Advertising Truly Works? An Analysis of the Russian Market in 2025

The Association of Communication Agencies of Russia has summarized the results for 2025, revealing figures more telling than any commentary. The Russian advertising market reached 980 billion rubles, marking an 8.5% growth. While this might seem a decent result for many industries, it falls short for advertising, which had previously seen a substantial 24% surge just a year prior.

Essentially, the advertising market, ever sensitive to the pulse of business, merely reflects the overall economic climate. When companies perceive instability, their initial reaction is often to re-evaluate promotion budgets. 2024 was a period of active recovery and budget reallocation following the departure of major international players, whereas 2025 transitioned into an era of adaptation to a new reality, where every ruble spent must count.

A Glimpse into the Statistics

A noteworthy shift occurred within the market. Out-of-home (OOH) advertising, including digital billboards, emerged as the growth leader, showing a 12% increase. This trend suggests businesses are seeking to connect with audiences beyond saturated online channels, recognizing that classic billboards and digital screens offer predictable reach. Following OOH are video advertising and the broader internet segment, which grew by 10% and 9% respectively.

Conversely, two segments reported less favorable statistics. Audio advertising declined by 4%, while the publishing sector saw a 5% decrease. Print publications, in particular, fared much worse, experiencing a significant 12% drop. This likely indicates advertisers' diminishing confidence in the effectiveness of traditional formats, which often entail complex ROI measurement.

Regional Dynamics

Across the country, activity outside the capital has largely stalled. The regional market volume (excluding Moscow) expanded by only 1%, reaching 125 billion rubles. This represents merely symbolic growth, suggesting that regional businesses are either facing stagnation or have adopted a wait-and-see approach.

Yekaterinburg led in regional growth with a 5% increase, followed by St. Petersburg with a 3% rise. Kazan, however, which had previously been a magnet for advertising budgets in recent years, reported a 1% decline. This is a concerning sign, possibly linked to local market saturation or a reallocation of budgets by major federal clients.

Where Will Advertisers Turn Next?

The advertising market is likely to face stricter demands for effectiveness, as advertisers, under current conditions, are increasingly willing to pay only for measurable results. Segments that have already shown negative dynamics, such as print media and radio, are expected to continue shrinking due to overly complex effectiveness measurement models.

Experts also forecast a shift from a maximum possible impressions model to a "payment for seconds of attention" model. While this approach will necessitate sophisticated analysis of target audience behavior, it promises to more accurately reflect user priorities and interests. In turn, these technological demands will likely lead to larger agencies and tech platforms, capable of offering such services, displacing smaller players.

Based on the aforementioned data, experts believe that the marketing communications market will continue to grow faster than traditional advertising. This perspective is supported by businesses themselves, which are increasingly willing to invest not just in ad placement, but in comprehensive solutions encompassing analytics, data management, and AI-generated creative content. Advertising, once viewed as an art form, is gradually transforming into an engineering task focused on capturing and retaining attention.

Meanwhile, the Federal Antimonopoly Service (FAS) has announced a crackdown on advertising integrations within Telegram. Concurrently, the advertising market within the messenger itself has shown significant revitalization.