German politics and the German economy should pay more attention to the island republic. Much is at stake.
Sometimes a book arrives at just the right moment to spark a long-overdue debate. “When China Attacks – A Scenario” (recently published by C.H. Beck and already on Der Spiegel’s bestseller list) belongs in this rather rare category. In just 100 pages, Andreas Fulda paints a grim picture of a Chinese attack on Taiwan that ends victoriously for Xi Jinping, even before the Americans and their Asian allies have fully woken up.
The China and Taiwan expert, a professor at the University of Nottingham, aims to awaken the West and also offers a concise guide on what Germany and Europe can do to prevent his dire scenario from becoming reality. His most important demand of us: German politics and economy must finally stop “soft-pedaling China” and denying the threat to Taiwan.
The truth is: we are paying far too little attention to the situation in the Taiwan Strait. We have only just learned from the Strait of Hormuz how dependent we are on the world’s major sea routes. However, a war over Taiwan would be many times more dangerous for Europe in its geopolitical and economic consequences than the current war in Iran. Energy resources can be rerouted, and production can be ramped up in other regions of the world. But a company like TMSC in Taiwan, the most important global manufacturer of high-performance semiconductors, is simply irreplaceable. If the company falls into Chinese hands, the West can forget its technological leadership role for a very long time.
Trump Sees China – Not Taiwan
Taiwan finally needs to be on the daily radar screen of German politics and economy. Never has there been so much movement around the island republic as now. Xi Jinping recently achieved his greatest propaganda success in a long time by receiving opposition leader Cheng Li-wun. The last chairman of the Kuomintang was received in Beijing ten years ago. In Taiwan’s parliament, the opposition party has more seats than the government. And Xi Jinping is doing everything he can to deepen the rift between President Lai Ching-te and her.
In mid-May, Donald Trump is scheduled to arrive in Beijing for his already once-postponed visit, unless something intervenes at the last minute. And nothing good can be expected from this trip either. In contrast to the administration’s strategy papers, which identify China as the greatest threat to the US, the president is once again solely focused on a “deal.” One must fear that Trump will rhetorically throw Taiwan under the bus if he can subsequently present himself as a great dealmaker. The consequences could be devastating. Even the slightest mistake by the president could mislead the Chinese leadership into believing that the United States is no longer seriously prepared to defend Taiwan.
Just as Germany and the EU lack an independent Middle East policy, they also lack an independent Asia policy. Until now, the motto has been: the Americans will take care of Taiwan’s security. And we will stay as far away as possible, just to avoid provoking the anger of the People’s Republic of China. If we can learn anything from the Iran war, it should be an active Taiwan policy. The first step towards this: close cooperation with Japan and (if possible) South Korea.
