SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic: Milliardenverluste, Billionenbewertungen: Wie riskant ist die IPO-Welle?

SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic are preparing for potentially record-breaking IPOs. However, their valuations significantly diverge from their fundamental data, raising questions about investor willingness to accept such risks. This upcoming wave of offerings will serve as a crucial test for the market's appetite for high-growth technology stocks.

"Once we move past the initial excitement phase where everyone wants to own the stock, it will be critical for these companies to demonstrate clearly what their earnings look like," states Anthony Saglimbene, Chief Market Strategist at Ameriprise. The IPOs of these three companies could potentially add $3 trillion to the $69 trillion U.S. stock market, according to estimates from analysis firm LPL Financial.

Are Exorbitant Valuations Justified?

What sets these three IPOs apart is the substantial gap between their valuations and fundamental metrics. They are targeting valuations comparable to those of Meta and Palantir, yet without the track record of sustained profitability. Elon Musk's aerospace and AI company, SpaceX, alone is aiming for a valuation of $1.75 trillion, which would make it the largest IPO in history. OpenAI, the developer of ChatGPT, is reportedly seeking a valuation of around $1 trillion, while its rival Anthropic was valued at $380 billion in a February funding round.

The core issue lies in the absence of profits. SpaceX incurred a loss of nearly $5 billion in the past year on revenues exceeding $18.6 billion, according to excerpts from its confidential registration statement obtained by Reuters. The IPO is slated for June. SpaceX's satellite internet business, Starlink, is seen by many investors as a potential groundbreaking growth driver. Simultaneously, the company is spending heavily on its AI startup xAI and the development of reusable rockets for its Starship program.

Media reports also indicate that AI-focused software firms OpenAI and Anthropic are unprofitable. They are still in the earlier stages of IPO preparation.

This trio aims to capitalize on investor demand for high-growth technologies. This boom has already propelled a small group of companies to exert significant influence over the U.S. stock index S&P 500. The "Magnificent Seven"—Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Nvidia, Meta, and Tesla—now constitute about a third of the index's weighting. These seven companies also significantly outperform others in earnings growth. They achieved 43.2% earnings growth in 2023, with projections of 36.9% for 2024 and 25.3% for 2025, according to Tajinder Dhillon, an expert at stock exchange operator LSEG. The remaining 493 companies in the index had a less impressive growth of -1.3%, 7.0%, and 10.9% respectively.

Profits First, Then Index Inclusion

Profits are also critical for inclusion in stock indices. Entry into an index can trigger trillions of dollars in automatic purchases. S&P Dow Jones Indices requires four consecutive quarters of profitability and at least twelve months of trading history before a company can be considered for the S&P 500. Tesla went public in 2010 but was only added to the index in 2020, after achieving sustained profitability. A similar timeframe for SpaceX, OpenAI, or Anthropic would mean years without the structural buying support that index membership provides.

Some analysts warn that the inclusion of these major IPO newcomers in indices will further amplify the dominance of a few, albeit weighty, technology stocks. Rodney Comegys, Chief Investment Officer at Vanguard Capital Management, advises caution: "History shows that not every early market leader in a new technology is a long-term winner in the end."

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SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic: Billions in Losses, Trillions in Valuations: How Risky Is the IPO Wave?

SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic are preparing for potentially record-breaking IPOs. However, their valuations significantly diverge from their fundamental data, raising questions about investor willingness to accept such risks. This upcoming wave of offerings will serve as a crucial test for the market's appetite for high-growth technology stocks.

"Once we move past the initial excitement phase where everyone wants to own the stock, it will be critical for these companies to demonstrate clearly what their earnings look like," states Anthony Saglimbene, Chief Market Strategist at Ameriprise. The IPOs of these three companies could potentially add $3 trillion to the $69 trillion U.S. stock market, according to estimates from analysis firm LPL Financial.

Are Exorbitant Valuations Justified?

What sets these three IPOs apart is the substantial gap between their valuations and fundamental metrics. They are targeting valuations comparable to those of Meta and Palantir, yet without the track record of sustained profitability. Elon Musk's aerospace and AI company, SpaceX, alone is aiming for a valuation of $1.75 trillion, which would make it the largest IPO in history. OpenAI, the developer of ChatGPT, is reportedly seeking a valuation of around $1 trillion, while its rival Anthropic was valued at $380 billion in a February funding round.

The core issue lies in the absence of profits. SpaceX incurred a loss of nearly $5 billion in the past year on revenues exceeding $18.6 billion, according to excerpts from its confidential registration statement obtained by Reuters. The IPO is slated for June. SpaceX's satellite internet business, Starlink, is seen by many investors as a potential groundbreaking growth driver. Simultaneously, the company is spending heavily on its AI startup xAI and the development of reusable rockets for its Starship program.

Media reports also indicate that AI-focused software firms OpenAI and Anthropic are unprofitable. They are still in the earlier stages of IPO preparation.

This trio aims to capitalize on investor demand for high-growth technologies. This boom has already propelled a small group of companies to exert significant influence over the U.S. stock index S&P 500. The "Magnificent Seven"—Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Nvidia, Meta, and Tesla—now constitute about a third of the index's weighting. These seven companies also significantly outperform others in earnings growth. They achieved 43.2% earnings growth in 2023, with projections of 36.9% for 2024 and 25.3% for 2025, according to Tajinder Dhillon, an expert at stock exchange operator LSEG. The remaining 493 companies in the index had a less impressive growth of -1.3%, 7.0%, and 10.9% respectively.

Profits First, Then Index Inclusion

Profits are also critical for inclusion in stock indices. Entry into an index can trigger trillions of dollars in automatic purchases. S&P Dow Jones Indices requires four consecutive quarters of profitability and at least twelve months of trading history before a company can be considered for the S&P 500. Tesla went public in 2010 but was only added to the index in 2020, after achieving sustained profitability. A similar timeframe for SpaceX, OpenAI, or Anthropic would mean years without the structural buying support that index membership provides.

Some analysts warn that the inclusion of these major IPO newcomers in indices will further amplify the dominance of a few, albeit weighty, technology stocks. Rodney Comegys, Chief Investment Officer at Vanguard Capital Management, advises caution: "History shows that not every early market leader in a new technology is a long-term winner in the end."